Thursday, June 24, 2004
Iowa Electronic Markets Show Bush Ahead.
The Iowa Electronic Markets are becoming relatively popular as an alternative to the traditional opinion polls, especially among those who just can't get enough political news. This popularity can be partially attributed to the speeches I peformed about the markets a couple of years ago (sure Steve, you can think that) and partially to the fact that they tend to out predict the opinion polls. Ok, lets be honest, only the vote share market does that, and even then the market is able to be accurate only very close to the election.
Still, in the vote share market Bush is 6 points up on Kerry, and in the winner take all market, he is 4 points up on Kerry. These quotes do change regularily, so don't bother commenting that they are off if you read this in say...10 minutes.
Anyway, these are slightly more optimistic for Bush than the most recent polls in which Bush seemed to lead Kerry or be tied early in the month, though the most recent ABC poll puts Kerry up by a decent margin, especially if Nader is not in the race.
But then really, this is all a bit premature I know. I just like to see how the numbers corrospond to various news events
The Iowa Electronic Markets are becoming relatively popular as an alternative to the traditional opinion polls, especially among those who just can't get enough political news. This popularity can be partially attributed to the speeches I peformed about the markets a couple of years ago (sure Steve, you can think that) and partially to the fact that they tend to out predict the opinion polls. Ok, lets be honest, only the vote share market does that, and even then the market is able to be accurate only very close to the election.
Still, in the vote share market Bush is 6 points up on Kerry, and in the winner take all market, he is 4 points up on Kerry. These quotes do change regularily, so don't bother commenting that they are off if you read this in say...10 minutes.
Anyway, these are slightly more optimistic for Bush than the most recent polls in which Bush seemed to lead Kerry or be tied early in the month, though the most recent ABC poll puts Kerry up by a decent margin, especially if Nader is not in the race.
But then really, this is all a bit premature I know. I just like to see how the numbers corrospond to various news events
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